The 5 Day Meta-Poll Results for Tue 11/06/2012 (Final Poll Results):
Obama 48.7 / Romney 48.4 (Obama by 0.3)
The 20 Day Meta-Poll Results for Tue 11/06/2012 (Final Poll Results):
Romney 48.3 / Obama 48 (Romney by 0.3)
Meta-Poll Trending for Tue 11/06/2012 (Final Poll Results):
Obama 0.7 / Romney 0.1
Commentary - In an Evenly Divided Nation, An Appeal For Calm.
This election may rouse passions between fellow Americans. Good people on each side of the present debate believe very strongly that their side of the argument will lead to a better future for all. We are deeply in debt and face some very hard choices, no matter which side prevails. And so it may appear that this election is critical.
The closeness of the polls has a distinct possibility to fuel anger after the results come in, since no matter which side wins, the losing side may feel that the election was "stolen" since "the polls" said it was so close. But as pointed out below, there is a very real possiblity that the polls this year are not very accurate. And in the case that the polls are accurate, and the real results do indeed come out close, we may then have to deal with recounts, which have the additional dangers. Hence, in all scenarios there is a strong possibility for anger and division among us. I wish to take this opportunity to expound upon some issues that, when looked at dispassionately, might defuse some of the anger and rancor that is possible this year.
Can we believe the polls?
During my time compiling the Meta-Poll for this election I was struck by the consistency of the poll results over time within each polling organization. By the law of large numbers, the standard deviation of a random sample of 500 is about 4.47%. For normal distributions, about 1/3rd of the results should lie outside one standard deviation. As an example, if Polling Organization A was to perform six polls, we should expect something like the following for an even race: +1, -2, +7, -3, +4, -6. Instead, we typically see something more like +1, tied, tied, -1, tied, tied. Scientifically, it can be stated that the second moment of the distribution function is too small. From this it appears that the polling organizations are not really doing random polling. Rather, they appear to be "stacking the deck" in an effort to try and get what they believe to be the best result. Since on election day their results will be compared to the actual vote, they have every incentive to try and get the best result possible, so I believe that any "stacking of the deck" is likely an attempt by the organizations to make things more accurate, and that they believe they are doing so. However, the remarkable consistency is an indication that the poll results being reported are not at all generated from random sampling, since we'd see wilder fluctuations if they were. And without random sampling, efforts to "stack the deck" have a likely result of the polls reflecting past performance rather than future results. Furthermore there is likely some effect of the "herd mentality" in this deck-stacking, since most of the polls are converging toward each other as we get to the end. Hence, it should not be at all suprising if the actual result is considerably different than what these overly-consistent polls are showing.
Comments about recounts, and what we should do instead.
In close elections, the recourse of the losing side is often to demand a recount. I believe that recounts as presently pursued are very bad public policy for the health of our repubic. I am struck how, during the Bush/Gore recounts, everyone assumed, and it indeed transpired, that recounts would garner more Democratic votes from Democratic counties, and more Republican votes from Republican counties. I believe people (including the media) were confusing original voting, which should indeed have such a result, with recounts, which should not. If we assume that a vote is a physical entity that does not change in the measurement process, then, if we count it one day, and count it later, the count should be the same. There should be no change. The fact that Democratic counties generally tend to get higher Democratic totals after a recount, and Republican counties generally tend to get higher Republican totals after a recount, indicates that the vote actually changes during the recount process, and in the opposite direction that it should. A slight smudge on an original ballot gets smudged further upon the first handling, and more so on the next until a vote becomes registered. Different handling can result in votes for one party becoming void. Hence, the recount likely makes the result less accurate, not more so. And worse, one would expect that innocent alterations of ballots would lead to results becoming closer, not further apart. (If there are more ballots for one party than the other, and each is equally capable of changing, then the party that had the lead will have more changes to their ballots than the party that was behind, making the results closer - if the process is random.) Despite these problems with recounts, the prevailing laws generally are written such that the recount is the result that is used, rather than the original count when the two differ. Why is this so? A better solution would be that a recount can only change the result of the election if the margin of victory in the recount exceeds the original margin by a factor of two or more. The way we do it now invites fraud and litigation, doing great harm to the faith needed in the fairness of the electoral process.
Recommendations for Dealing with Elections Peacefully
In light of the above, I have the following recommendations:
Firstly, I would emplore advocates of each side to accept that the actual reported election results of millions of voters are far more believable than are polls of 500 or 1000 people taken before or during the election. To be redundant - since it is important - there is a very real possiblity that the polls this year are not very accurate.
Secondly, I would emplore advocates of each side to accept the first count of all ballots rather than any recounts, since evidence from prior recounts shows that the recount process appears to lead to a less valid result than the original.
Thirdly, please do not rush to accuse all individuals on the other side of malice, when they can just as easily be merely incompetent. While neither trait is good, and perhaps incompetent leaders are more dangerous than malicious ones, it is incompetence that is the far more prevalent human trait, and far easier to forgive. Since the human frailties of malice and incompetence both exist, we do indeed need to be as vigilent as possible that the election be free and fair, but once it is done we should accept the results peacefully. Right now, there are some very significant problems facing our nation. It will be easier to solve these problems if we at least grant to each other the assumption that we each mean well, and that we are merely differing on which path is best to take in our difficult times.
Lastly, remember that we vote again every two years. Whatever gets done can be undone as long as we have the will to do so. Our challenges will need to be met, no matter who is in office, and our system provides for input from all sides. Each election is important, but there will be more to come.
The Meta-Poll Methodology
The 5 day Meta-Poll is our weighted average of all of the reputable polling that we have access to. For each poll, we calculate the number of people who support Obama and the number that support Romney. We then weight those numbers by their freshness, with the weight falling off by 20% of its original value each day. Hence, on the first day, each opinion will get 100% of its value, while on the 3rd day it will only affect the result by 60% of its original value, and by the 6th day it will no longer count at all. For rolling tracking polls, we use the number of opinions taken per day as our base for calculating the number of opinions that poll result represents.
The 20 day Meta-Poll is a similar weighted average, but it reflects data over a longer period of time. In the 20 day Meta-Poll we again weight each individual poll by their freshness, with the weight falling off this time by 5% of its original value each day.
The Meta-Poll Trending result is arrived at by subtracting the 20 Day Meta-Poll Results from the 5 Day Meta-Poll Results, which gives a good idea on how each of the candidates is trending.
The Meta-Poll Accuracy
We feel that the Meta-Poll is the most accurate poll of any that are reported in the various media. By using the scientific method of meta-analysis, our method treats every opinion the same - no matter who the opinion is reported by. This does have the effect of weighting polls that are taken daily higher than those that are taken once a month - but if all polls are equally unbiased, it is entirely proper to do so. Of course, partisans will argue over which polling company slants which way. If polling companies are viewed as inherantly biased, then perhaps the Real Clear Politics Poll of Polls might be considered a better guide, since it gives each polling agency equal weight, rather than each interviewee. But perhaps the best picture of where things stand is to use both approaches, and with that in mind we hope that the interested public will frequently visit both our site and the Real Clear Politics site. Viewers can then use their own judgement on which technique best represents America's prevailing opinion.
The 5 Day Meta-Poll Raw Data
| Days Old | Polling Organization | Sample Size | Obama Raw% | Romney Raw% | Obama Weighted Votes | Romney Weighted Votes | Undecided Weighted Votes |
| 0 | Politico/GWU | 1000 | 47.0 | 47.0 | 470.0 | 470.0 | 60.0 |
| 0 | IBD/TIPP | 712 | 50.0 | 49.0 | 356.0 | 348.88 | 7.12 |
| 0 | Rasmussen Tracking | 1000 | 48.0 | 49.0 | 480.0 | 490.0 | 30.0 |
| 1 | Rasmussen Tracking | 1000 | 48.0 | 49.0 | 384.0 | 392.0 | 24.0 |
| 1 | ABC/WaPo | 350 | 50.0 | 47.0 | 140.0 | 131.6 | 8.4 |
| 1 | Gallup Tracking | 2700 | 49.0 | 50.0 | 1058.4 | 1080.0 | 21.6 |
| 1 | Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun | 1417 | 48.0 | 48.0 | 544.128 | 544.128 | 45.344 |
| 1 | CNN/OR | 693 | 49.0 | 49.0 | 271.656 | 271.656 | 11.088 |
| 2 | Rasmussen Tracking | 1000 | 49.0 | 49.0 | 294.0 | 294.0 | 12.0 |
| 2 | NBC/WSJ | 1475 | 49.0 | 48.0 | 433.65 | 424.8 | 26.55 |
| 2 | ABC/WaPo | 350 | 49.0 | 48.0 | 102.9 | 100.8 | 6.3 |
| 2 | Pew | 2709 | 50.0 | 47.0 | 812.7 | 763.938 | 48.762 |
| 3 | Rasmussen Tracking | 1000 | 48.0 | 48.0 | 192.0 | 192.0 | 16.0 |
| 3 | ABC/WaPo | 350 | 48.0 | 48.0 | 67.2 | 67.2 | 5.6 |
| 4 | Rasmussen Tracking | 500 | 48.0 | 48.0 | 48.0 | 48.0 | 4.0 |
| 4 | ABC/WaPo | 350 | 48.0 | 49.0 | 33.6 | 34.3 | 2.1 |
| 4 | Politico/GWU | 1000 | 48.0 | 48.0 | 96.0 | 96.0 | 8.0 |
The 20 Day Meta-Poll Raw Data
| Days Old | Polling Organization | Sample Size | Obama Raw% | Romney Raw% | Obama Weighted Votes | Romney Weighted Votes | Undecided Weighted Votes |
| 0 | Politico/GWU | 1000 | 47.0 | 47.0 | 470.0 | 470.0 | 60.0 |
| 0 | IBD/TIPP | 712 | 50.0 | 49.0 | 356.0 | 348.88 | 7.12 |
| 0 | Rasmussen Tracking | 1000 | 48.0 | 49.0 | 480.0 | 490.0 | 30.0 |
| 1 | Rasmussen Tracking | 1000 | 48.0 | 49.0 | 456.0 | 465.5 | 28.5 |
| 1 | Gallup Tracking | 2700 | 49.0 | 50.0 | 1256.85 | 1282.5 | 25.65 |
| 1 | CNN/OR | 693 | 49.0 | 49.0 | 322.5915 | 322.5915 | 13.167 |
| 1 | Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun | 1417 | 48.0 | 48.0 | 646.152 | 646.152 | 53.846 |
| 1 | ABC/WaPo | 350 | 50.0 | 47.0 | 166.25 | 156.275 | 9.975 |
| 2 | Rasmussen Tracking | 1000 | 49.0 | 49.0 | 441.0 | 441.0 | 18.0 |
| 2 | NBC/WSJ | 1475 | 49.0 | 48.0 | 650.475 | 637.2 | 39.825 |
| 2 | ABC/WaPo | 350 | 49.0 | 48.0 | 154.35 | 151.2 | 9.45 |
| 2 | Pew | 2709 | 50.0 | 47.0 | 1219.05 | 1145.907 | 73.143 |
| 3 | Rasmussen Tracking | 1000 | 48.0 | 48.0 | 408.0 | 408.0 | 34.0 |
| 3 | ABC/WaPo | 350 | 48.0 | 48.0 | 142.8 | 142.8 | 11.9 |
| 4 | Politico/GWU | 1000 | 48.0 | 48.0 | 384.0 | 384.0 | 32.0 |
| 4 | Rasmussen Tracking | 500 | 48.0 | 48.0 | 192.0 | 192.0 | 16.0 |
| 4 | ABC/WaPo | 350 | 48.0 | 49.0 | 134.4 | 137.2 | 8.4 |
| 5 | Rasmussen Tracking | 500 | 47.0 | 49.0 | 176.25 | 183.75 | 15.0 |
| 5 | ABC/WaPo | 350 | 49.0 | 48.0 | 128.625 | 126.0 | 7.875 |
| 6 | ABC/WaPo | 350 | 49.0 | 49.0 | 120.05 | 120.05 | 4.9 |
| 6 | Fox | 1128 | 46.0 | 46.0 | 363.216 | 363.216 | 63.168 |
| 6 | Rasmussen Tracking | 500 | 47.0 | 49.0 | 164.5 | 171.5 | 14.0 |
| 7 | ABC/WaPo | 350 | 48.0 | 49.0 | 109.2 | 111.475 | 6.825 |
| 7 | Rasmussen Tracking | 500 | 47.0 | 49.0 | 152.75 | 159.25 | 13.0 |
| 8 | Rasmussen Tracking | 500 | 47.0 | 49.0 | 141.0 | 147.0 | 12.0 |
| 8 | Gallup Tracking | 450 | 46.0 | 51.0 | 124.2 | 137.7 | 8.1 |
| 8 | CBS/NYT | 563 | 48.0 | 47.0 | 162.144 | 158.766 | 16.89 |
| 8 | ABC/WaPo | 350 | 49.0 | 49.0 | 102.9 | 102.9 | 4.2 |
| 8 | NJ | 713 | 50.0 | 45.0 | 213.9 | 192.51 | 21.39 |
| 8 | Pew | 1495 | 47.0 | 47.0 | 421.59 | 421.59 | 53.82 |
| 9 | Gallup Tracking | 450 | 46.0 | 50.0 | 113.85 | 123.75 | 9.9 |
| 9 | IBD/TIPP | 200 | 45.0 | 44.0 | 49.5 | 48.4 | 12.1 |
| 9 | Rasmussen Tracking | 500 | 47.0 | 50.0 | 129.25 | 137.5 | 8.25 |
| 10 | IBD/TIPP | 200 | 47.0 | 45.0 | 47.0 | 45.0 | 8.0 |
| 10 | Rasmussen Tracking | 500 | 46.0 | 50.0 | 115.0 | 125.0 | 10.0 |
| 10 | Gallup Tracking | 450 | 46.0 | 51.0 | 103.5 | 114.75 | 6.75 |
| 10 | ABC/WaPo | 350 | 48.0 | 49.0 | 84.0 | 85.75 | 5.25 |
| 11 | Politico/GWU | 1000 | 49.0 | 48.0 | 220.5 | 216.0 | 13.5 |
| 11 | NPR | 1000 | 47.0 | 48.0 | 211.5 | 216.0 | 22.5 |
| 11 | Rasmussen Tracking | 500 | 47.0 | 50.0 | 105.75 | 112.5 | 6.75 |
| 11 | IBD/TIPP | 200 | 47.0 | 45.0 | 42.3 | 40.5 | 7.2 |
| 11 | ABC/WaPo | 350 | 48.0 | 49.0 | 75.6 | 77.175 | 4.725 |
| 11 | Gallup Tracking | 450 | 46.0 | 51.0 | 93.15 | 103.275 | 6.075 |
| 12 | ABC/WaPo | 350 | 47.0 | 50.0 | 65.8 | 70.0 | 4.2 |
| 12 | IBD/TIPP | 200 | 47.0 | 45.0 | 37.6 | 36.0 | 6.4 |
| 12 | Rasmussen Tracking | 500 | 47.0 | 50.0 | 94.0 | 100.0 | 6.0 |
| 12 | AP/GfK | 839 | 45.0 | 47.0 | 151.02 | 157.732 | 26.848 |
| 12 | Gallup Tracking | 450 | 47.0 | 50.0 | 84.6 | 90.0 | 5.4 |
| 13 | ABC/WaPo | 350 | 48.0 | 49.0 | 58.8 | 60.025 | 3.675 |
| 13 | IBD/TIPP | 200 | 47.0 | 44.0 | 32.9 | 30.8 | 6.3 |
| 13 | Gallup Tracking | 450 | 47.0 | 50.0 | 74.025 | 78.75 | 4.725 |
| 13 | Rasmussen Tracking | 500 | 46.0 | 50.0 | 80.5 | 87.5 | 7.0 |
| 14 | Gallup Tracking | 450 | 46.0 | 51.0 | 62.1 | 68.85 | 4.05 |
| 14 | Rasmussen Tracking | 500 | 46.0 | 50.0 | 69.0 | 75.0 | 6.0 |
| 14 | ABC/WaPo | 1382 | 48.0 | 49.0 | 199.008 | 203.154 | 12.438 |
| 14 | IBD/TIPP | 200 | 47.0 | 45.0 | 28.2 | 27.0 | 4.8 |
| 15 | IBD/TIPP | 200 | 47.0 | 43.0 | 23.5 | 21.5 | 5.0 |
| 15 | Rasmussen Tracking | 500 | 47.0 | 49.0 | 58.75 | 61.25 | 5.0 |
| 15 | Gallup Tracking | 450 | 45.0 | 51.0 | 50.625 | 57.375 | 4.5 |
| 15 | Monmouth | 1402 | 45.0 | 48.0 | 157.725 | 168.24 | 24.535 |
| 16 | CBS | 790 | 48.0 | 46.0 | 75.84 | 72.68 | 9.48 |
| 16 | Gallup Tracking | 450 | 45.0 | 52.0 | 40.5 | 46.8 | 2.7 |
| 16 | Rasmussen Tracking | 500 | 47.0 | 49.0 | 47.0 | 49.0 | 4.0 |
| 16 | IBD/TIPP | 200 | 48.0 | 42.0 | 19.2 | 16.8 | 4.0 |
| 16 | NBC/WSJ | 816 | 47.0 | 47.0 | 76.704 | 76.704 | 9.792 |
| 16 | WashTimes/JZA | 800 | 50.0 | 47.0 | 80.0 | 75.2 | 4.8 |
| 17 | IBD/TIPP | 200 | 47.0 | 44.0 | 14.1 | 13.2 | 2.7 |
| 17 | Rasmussen Tracking | 500 | 48.0 | 49.0 | 36.0 | 36.75 | 2.25 |
| 17 | Gallup Tracking | 450 | 45.0 | 51.0 | 30.375 | 34.425 | 2.7 |
| 18 | IBD/TIPP | 200 | 47.0 | 45.0 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 1.6 |
| 18 | Politico/GWU | 1000 | 47.0 | 49.0 | 47.0 | 49.0 | 4.0 |
| 18 | Gallup Tracking | 450 | 45.0 | 51.0 | 20.25 | 22.95 | 1.8 |
| 18 | Rasmussen Tracking | 500 | 48.0 | 48.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 2.0 |
| 19 | Rasmussen Tracking | 500 | 47.0 | 49.0 | 11.75 | 12.25 | 1.0 |
| 19 | IBD/TIPP | 200 | 46.0 | 46.0 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 0.8 |
| 19 | Gallup Tracking | 450 | 45.0 | 52.0 | 10.125 | 11.7 | 0.675 |
Meta-Poll Historical Results
| Date | Obama 20 Day Meta-Poll | Romney 20 Day Meta-Poll | Obama 5 Day Meta-Poll | Romney 5 Day Meta-Poll | Obama Meta-Poll Trend | Romney Meta-Poll Trend |
| Mon 05/21/2012 | 45.4 | 45.3 | 46.3 | 44.9 | 0.9 | -0.4 |
| Tue 05/22/2012 | 45.5 | 45.1 | 46.6 | 44.7 | 1.1 | -0.4 |
| Wed 05/23/2012 | 45.5 | 45.1 | 46.5 | 44.8 | 1 | -0.3 |
| Thu 05/24/2012 | 45.6 | 45.1 | 46.4 | 44.9 | 0.8 | -0.2 |
| Fri 05/25/2012 | 45.6 | 45.1 | 46.1 | 45.1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Sat 05/26/2012 | 45.6 | 45.1 | 45.7 | 45.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Sun 05/27/2012 | 45.6 | 45 | 45.8 | 45.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Mon 05/28/2012 | 45.6 | 45 | 45.4 | 45.1 | -0.2 | 0.1 |
| Tue 05/29/2012 | 45.6 | 45 | 45.5 | 45 | -0.1 | 0 |
| Wed 05/30/2012 | 45.6 | 45 | 45.5 | 45.2 | -0.1 | 0.2 |
| Thu 05/31/2012 | 45.7 | 45 | 45.6 | 45.2 | -0.1 | 0.2 |
| Fri 06/01/2012 | 45.9 | 45.1 | 46.4 | 45.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Sat 06/02/2012 | 45.9 | 45.2 | 46.1 | 45.9 | 0.2 | 0.7 |
| Sun 06/03/2012 | 45.9 | 45.4 | 45.9 | 46.2 | 0 | 0.8 |
| Mon 06/04/2012 | 45.8 | 45.5 | 45.6 | 46.2 | -0.2 | 0.7 |
| Tue 06/05/2012 | 45.8 | 45.5 | 45.5 | 46 | -0.3 | 0.5 |
| Wed 06/06/2012 | 46.4 | 45 | 46.7 | 44.6 | 0.3 | -0.4 |
| Thu 06/07/2012 | 46.3 | 45.1 | 46.4 | 45 | 0.1 | -0.1 |
| Fri 06/08/2012 | 46.2 | 45 | 46.1 | 45 | -0.1 | 0 |
| Sat 06/09/2012 | 46.1 | 45.1 | 45.8 | 45.4 | -0.3 | 0.3 |
| Sun 06/10/2012 | 46.1 | 45.1 | 45.6 | 45.6 | -0.5 | 0.5 |
| Mon 06/11/2012 | 45.9 | 45.1 | 45.4 | 45.6 | -0.5 | 0.5 |
| Tue 06/12/2012 | 45.9 | 45 | 45.2 | 45.1 | -0.7 | 0.1 |
| Wed 06/13/2012 | 45.8 | 45.1 | 45 | 45.6 | -0.8 | 0.5 |
| Thu 06/14/2012 | 45.7 | 45.2 | 45 | 45.9 | -0.7 | 0.7 |
| Fri 06/15/2012 | 45.6 | 45.3 | 44.9 | 46.1 | -0.7 | 0.8 |
| Sat 06/16/2012 | 45.6 | 45.4 | 45 | 46.3 | -0.6 | 0.9 |
| Sun 06/17/2012 | 45.5 | 45.5 | 44.8 | 46.5 | -0.7 | 1 |
| Mon 06/18/2012 | 45.4 | 45.6 | 44.8 | 46.5 | -0.6 | 0.9 |
| Tue 06/19/2012 | 45.3 | 45.7 | 44.7 | 46.7 | -0.6 | 1 |
| Wed 06/20/2012 | 45.7 | 45.5 | 46.2 | 45.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| Thu 06/21/2012 | 46.1 | 45.6 | 46.6 | 45.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| Fri 06/22/2012 | 45.9 | 45.7 | 45.9 | 46.1 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Sat 06/23/2012 | 45.8 | 45.9 | 45 | 46.5 | -0.8 | 0.6 |
| Sun 06/24/2012 | 45.7 | 46 | 44.4 | 46.9 | -1.3 | 0.9 |
| Mon 06/25/2012 | 45.7 | 46 | 44.6 | 46.7 | -1.1 | 0.7 |
| Tue 06/26/2012 | 45.6 | 46.1 | 44.7 | 46.6 | -0.9 | 0.5 |
| Wed 06/27/2012 | 45.7 | 45.9 | 45.3 | 45.8 | -0.4 | -0.1 |
| Thu 06/28/2012 | 45.7 | 45.5 | 45.5 | 44.3 | -0.2 | -1.2 |
| Fri 06/29/2012 | 46 | 45.3 | 46.4 | 44.3 | 0.4 | -1 |
| Sat 06/30/2012 | 46 | 45.2 | 46.5 | 44.1 | 0.5 | -1.1 |
| Sun 07/01/2012 | 46 | 45.1 | 46.5 | 44.2 | 0.5 | -0.9 |
| Mon 07/02/2012 | 46.3 | 45.1 | 47.1 | 44.9 | 0.8 | -0.2 |
| Tue 07/03/2012 | 46.3 | 45.1 | 46.9 | 45.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| Thu 07/05/2012 | 46.4 | 45 | 47.1 | 45.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| Fri 07/06/2012 | 46.4 | 45 | 46.6 | 45.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Sat 07/07/2012 | 46.3 | 45 | 46.1 | 45 | -0.2 | 0 |
| Sun 07/08/2012 | 46.3 | 45 | 46 | 45 | -0.3 | 0 |
| Tue 07/10/2012 | 46.2 | 45 | 46 | 45 | -0.2 | 0 |
| Wed 07/11/2012 | 46.2 | 44.7 | 46 | 44.6 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| Thu 07/12/2012 | 46.6 | 44.5 | 46.9 | 44.3 | 0.3 | -0.2 |
| Fri 07/13/2012 | 46.6 | 44.5 | 46.8 | 44.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Sat 07/14/2012 | 46.7 | 44.6 | 46.8 | 45.1 | 0.1 | 0.5 |
| Sun 07/15/2012 | 46.6 | 44.6 | 46.2 | 45.3 | -0.4 | 0.7 |
| Mon 07/16/2012 | 46.6 | 44.7 | 45.9 | 45.4 | -0.7 | 0.7 |
| Wed 07/18/2012 | 46.5 | 44.7 | 45.9 | 45.1 | -0.6 | 0.4 |
| Fri 07/20/2012 | 46.5 | 44.9 | 46.4 | 45.4 | -0.1 | 0.5 |
| Sun 07/22/2012 | 46.4 | 45 | 46.1 | 45.3 | -0.3 | 0.3 |
| Mon 07/23/2012 | 46.2 | 45 | 45.5 | 45.4 | -0.7 | 0.4 |
| Tue 07/24/2012 | 46.3 | 44.9 | 46 | 44.8 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| Wed 07/25/2012 | 46.2 | 45 | 45.5 | 45.2 | -0.7 | 0.2 |
| Thu 07/26/2012 | 46 | 45.2 | 45.3 | 45.8 | -0.7 | 0.6 |
| Fri 07/27/2012 | 45.9 | 45.4 | 44.9 | 46.6 | -1 | 1.2 |
| Sat 07/28/2012 | 45.8 | 45.6 | 44.7 | 47.1 | -1.1 | 1.5 |
| Sun 07/29/2012 | 45.7 | 45.8 | 45 | 47 | -0.7 | 1.2 |
| Mon 07/30/2012 | 45.8 | 45.9 | 45.3 | 46.8 | -0.5 | 0.9 |
| Tue 07/31/2012 | 45.7 | 45.9 | 45.2 | 46.5 | -0.5 | 0.6 |
| Wed 08/01/2012 | 45.7 | 46 | 45.3 | 46.3 | -0.4 | 0.3 |
| Thu 08/02/2012 | 46.3 | 45.4 | 45.4 | 46 | -0.9 | 0.6 |
| Fri 08/03/2012 | 46.2 | 45.5 | 45.2 | 45.9 | -1 | 0.4 |
| Sat 08/04/2012 | 46.1 | 45.5 | 45.3 | 45.8 | -0.8 | 0.3 |
| Sun 08/05/2012 | 46 | 45.5 | 45.3 | 45.8 | -0.7 | 0.3 |
| Mon 08/06/2012 | 46.1 | 45.5 | 45.7 | 45.6 | -0.4 | 0.1 |
| Tue 08/07/2012 | 46 | 45.5 | 45.9 | 45.5 | -0.1 | 0 |
| Wed 08/08/2012 | 46.3 | 45.2 | 46.6 | 44.7 | 0.3 | -0.5 |
| Thu 08/09/2012 | 46.6 | 45.3 | 47.4 | 45 | 0.8 | -0.3 |
| Fri 08/10/2012 | 46.6 | 45 | 47.1 | 44.7 | 0.5 | -0.3 |
| Sat 08/11/2012 | 46.4 | 44.7 | 46.4 | 44.1 | 0 | -0.6 |
| Sun 08/12/2012 | 46.3 | 44.8 | 45.9 | 44.5 | -0.4 | -0.3 |
| Mon 08/13/2012 | 46.3 | 45 | 45.7 | 45.4 | -0.6 | 0.4 |
| Tue 08/14/2012 | 46.2 | 45.2 | 45.1 | 45.8 | -1.1 | 0.6 |
| Wed 08/15/2012 | 46 | 45.3 | 44.6 | 46.3 | -1.4 | 1 |
| Thu 08/16/2012 | 45.9 | 45.4 | 44.4 | 46.5 | -1.5 | 1.1 |
| Fri 08/17/2012 | 45.8 | 45.4 | 44.8 | 46.3 | -1 | 0.9 |
| Sat 08/18/2012 | 45.8 | 45.4 | 45 | 46 | -0.8 | 0.6 |
| Sun 08/19/2012 | 45.7 | 45.4 | 45.1 | 45.5 | -0.6 | 0.1 |
| Mon 08/20/2012 | 45.6 | 45.3 | 45.1 | 45.3 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Tue 08/21/2012 | 45.5 | 45.4 | 45 | 45.4 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Wed 08/22/2012 | 45.7 | 45.4 | 45.6 | 45.5 | -0.1 | 0.1 |
| Thu 08/23/2012 | 45.8 | 45.5 | 45.8 | 45.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Fri 08/24/2012 | 45.8 | 45.6 | 46 | 45.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Sat 08/25/2012 | 45.8 | 45.6 | 46 | 45.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Sun 08/26/2012 | 45.8 | 45.6 | 46.2 | 45.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Mon 08/27/2012 | 45.8 | 45.7 | 46.4 | 45.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Tue 08/28/2012 | 45.9 | 45.7 | 46.3 | 45.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Wed 08/29/2012 | 45.9 | 45.6 | 46.3 | 45.5 | 0.4 | -0.1 |
| Thu 08/30/2012 | 45.9 | 45.6 | 46.2 | 45.5 | 0.3 | -0.1 |
| Fri 08/31/2012 | 45.9 | 45.6 | 46 | 45.4 | 0.1 | -0.2 |
| Sat 09/01/2012 | 45.9 | 45.7 | 45.8 | 45.8 | -0.1 | 0.1 |
| Sun 09/02/2012 | 45.9 | 45.7 | 45.6 | 46.3 | -0.3 | 0.6 |
| Mon 09/03/2012 | 45.8 | 45.8 | 45.3 | 46.1 | -0.5 | 0.3 |
| Tue 09/04/2012 | 45.9 | 45.9 | 45.8 | 46.5 | -0.1 | 0.6 |
| Wed 09/05/2012 | 45.9 | 46 | 45.9 | 46.7 | 0 | 0.7 |
| Thu 09/06/2012 | 45.9 | 46.1 | 45.8 | 46.6 | -0.1 | 0.5 |
| Fri 09/07/2012 | 45.9 | 46 | 46 | 46.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| Sat 09/08/2012 | 46 | 45.8 | 46.1 | 45.3 | 0.1 | -0.5 |
| Sun 09/09/2012 | 46.2 | 45.7 | 47.1 | 44.9 | 0.9 | -0.8 |
| Mon 09/10/2012 | 46.7 | 45.5 | 48.2 | 44.7 | 1.5 | -0.8 |
| Tue 09/11/2012 | 47 | 45.6 | 48.6 | 45 | 1.6 | -0.6 |
| Wed 09/12/2012 | 47.2 | 45.3 | 48.5 | 44.5 | 1.3 | -0.8 |
| Thu 09/13/2012 | 47.4 | 45.3 | 48.6 | 44.7 | 1.2 | -0.6 |
| Fri 09/14/2012 | 47.5 | 45.3 | 48.4 | 45.1 | 0.9 | -0.2 |
| Sat 09/15/2012 | 47.6 | 45.4 | 48.1 | 45.4 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Sun 09/16/2012 | 47.6 | 45.4 | 47.8 | 45.7 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Mon 09/17/2012 | 47.6 | 45.4 | 47.5 | 45.7 | -0.1 | 0.3 |
| Tue 09/18/2012 | 47.5 | 45.5 | 46.9 | 45.9 | -0.6 | 0.4 |
| Wed 09/19/2012 | 47.9 | 45.3 | 47.8 | 45.3 | -0.1 | 0 |
| Thu 09/20/2012 | 47.9 | 45.3 | 47.6 | 45.5 | -0.3 | 0.2 |
| Fri 09/21/2012 | 48 | 45.1 | 47.7 | 44.9 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| Sat 09/22/2012 | 47.9 | 45.1 | 47.2 | 45.3 | -0.7 | 0.2 |
| Sun 09/23/2012 | 47.9 | 45.1 | 47.1 | 45.6 | -0.8 | 0.5 |
| Mon 09/24/2012 | 48 | 45.3 | 47.5 | 46 | -0.5 | 0.7 |
| Tue 09/25/2012 | 48 | 45.3 | 47.4 | 46 | -0.6 | 0.7 |
| Wed 09/26/2012 | 48 | 45.2 | 47.8 | 45.1 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| Thu 09/27/2012 | 48 | 45.1 | 47.9 | 44.5 | -0.1 | -0.6 |
| Fri 09/28/2012 | 48 | 45.1 | 48.1 | 44.5 | 0.1 | -0.6 |
| Sat 09/29/2012 | 48 | 45.1 | 48.3 | 44.6 | 0.3 | -0.5 |
| Sun 09/30/2012 | 48.1 | 45 | 48.4 | 44.8 | 0.3 | -0.2 |
| Mon 10/01/2012 | 48.3 | 45.4 | 49 | 45.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| Tue 10/02/2012 | 48.5 | 45.2 | 49.2 | 45.2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Wed 10/03/2012 | 48.6 | 45.3 | 49.1 | 45.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| Thu 10/04/2012 | 48.6 | 45.3 | 49.1 | 45.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Fri 10/05/2012 | 48.7 | 45.4 | 49.1 | 45.8 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Sat 10/06/2012 | 48.7 | 45.5 | 48.8 | 46.5 | 0.1 | 1 |
| Sun 10/07/2012 | 48.6 | 45.6 | 48.5 | 47 | -0.1 | 1.4 |
| Mon 10/08/2012 | 48.5 | 45.9 | 47.6 | 47.5 | -0.9 | 1.6 |
| Tue 10/09/2012 | 48.3 | 46.2 | 47.1 | 47.7 | -1.2 | 1.5 |
| Wed 10/10/2012 | 48 | 46.4 | 46.5 | 47.5 | -1.5 | 1.1 |
| Thu 10/11/2012 | 47.8 | 46.4 | 46.4 | 47.2 | -1.4 | 0.8 |
| Fri 10/12/2012 | 47.7 | 46.6 | 46.5 | 47.3 | -1.2 | 0.7 |
| Sat 10/13/2012 | 47.6 | 46.8 | 46.7 | 47.6 | -0.9 | 0.8 |
| Sun 10/14/2012 | 47.6 | 46.9 | 46.8 | 47.9 | -0.8 | 1 |
| Mon 10/15/2012 | 47.6 | 47.1 | 47.5 | 47.9 | -0.1 | 0.8 |
| Tue 10/16/2012 | 47.5 | 47.3 | 47.2 | 48.3 | -0.3 | 1 |
| Wed 10/17/2012 | 47.4 | 47.5 | 47.1 | 48.5 | -0.3 | 1 |
| Thu 10/18/2012 | 47.3 | 47.7 | 46.7 | 49 | -0.6 | 1.3 |
| Fri 10/19/2012 | 47.2 | 47.7 | 46.8 | 48.4 | -0.4 | 0.7 |
| Sat 10/20/2012 | 47.1 | 47.8 | 46.7 | 48.6 | -0.4 | 0.8 |
| Sun 10/21/2012 | 47 | 47.9 | 46.6 | 48.4 | -0.4 | 0.5 |
| Mon 10/22/2012 | 47 | 48 | 46.7 | 48.1 | -0.3 | 0.1 |
| Tue 10/23/2012 | 47 | 48.1 | 46.8 | 48.4 | -0.2 | 0.3 |
| Wed 10/24/2012 | 46.9 | 48.2 | 46.8 | 48.6 | -0.1 | 0.4 |
| Thu 10/25/2012 | 46.9 | 48.3 | 46.6 | 48.6 | -0.3 | 0.3 |
| Fri 10/26/2012 | 46.9 | 48.4 | 46.6 | 48.9 | -0.3 | 0.5 |
| Sat 10/27/2012 | 46.8 | 48.5 | 46.6 | 49.1 | -0.2 | 0.6 |
| Sun 10/28/2012 | 46.8 | 48.5 | 46.5 | 49.1 | -0.3 | 0.6 |
| Mon 10/29/2012 | 46.9 | 48.5 | 46.9 | 48.6 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Tue 10/30/2012 | 47 | 48.5 | 47.1 | 48.5 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Wed 10/31/2012 | 47 | 48.3 | 47.2 | 47.8 | 0.2 | -0.5 |
| Thu 11/01/2012 | 47.1 | 48.3 | 47.3 | 47.9 | 0.2 | -0.4 |
| Fri 11/02/2012 | 47.1 | 48.3 | 47.5 | 48 | 0.4 | -0.3 |
| Sat 11/03/2012 | 47.2 | 48.3 | 47.6 | 48.1 | 0.4 | -0.2 |
| Sun 11/04/2012 | 47.7 | 48.1 | 48.9 | 47.8 | 1.2 | -0.3 |
| Mon 11/05/2012 | 48 | 48.3 | 48.9 | 48.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| Tue 11/06/2012 | 48 | 48.3 | 48.7 | 48.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |